Joan-Maria Esteban, Sabine Flamand, Massimo Morelli and Dominic Rohner build a theoretical model to shed light on the dynamics and incentives at play among disputing groups in a State.
Hannes Mueller and Christopher Rauh present a new method of predicting conflict through news topics which are generated automatically from a topic model.
If 1000 people were killed in conflict India, a country with a population of more than 1.2 billion inhabitants, would this have the same impact on the country as a whole as 1000 victims in Nicaragua, a country of 6 million inhabitants? The intuitive answer might be no, but this is exactly what most of the conflict literature is doing. Hannes Mueller makes a case for rethinking the approach of using a threshold of an absolute number of battle victims.